Candidates Should Focus on The Independents If They Want To Win

By the looks of it, the election this fall could be one of the most polarizing ones in recent memory, with the notable exception of the Bush / Gore election of 2000 that involved many other issues surrounding the outcome. Given that, who ever will win the election for president this far, whether it be Barack Obama or any of his G.O.P. contenders, most likely being Mitt Romney, it stands that those who vote will roughly evenly split the sides. I wouldn't even be very surprised by the outcome of a close 50/50 race, maybe dispersing to 45/55 race. We are all pretty sure its going to be close. A recent poll from the Washington Post taken soon after Obama delivered his State of the Union address showed that in a general election Obama shows a strong edge over Mitt Romney. This differential was a 52% to 37% Obama to Romney respectively. Nevertheless, this margin is likely to dissipate a bit as the campaign goes on.

What I think will be the key to this election is not necessarily focusing on inspiring your own party to vote for you as a candidate, but those who are independent and possibly an undecided vote. Of course in any election this has been a focus, but I think that this is as important as any time in history. Due the polarizing parties, people are turned off to each sides respective agendas, so much that very few Democrats will likely vote for a Republican, and vice versa. Thus the people who will likely be the deciders of this election are those who do not identify strongly to either side. While the quantity of these people is smaller than each respective party, whoever captures more of these voters given this near 50/50 split will win the election in my opinion.

Further, I believe Obama has the unique position compared to his candidate rivals to sway independent voters. He is the one setting the policy agenda from the executive branch currently and his policy outcomes will determine just how beneficial or detrimental he makes it for independents. Additionally, he has the ability to politically craft policy towards these important votes. As was evidenced by the very middle of the road and compromising policy of contraception requirements for religious institutions. Obama captured a lot of positive sentiments from the Catholic Bishops in disagreement and from the Planned Parenthoods of the nation in agreement. If he continues to do this over the next few months, he just may have enough to sway independents to his side.

Lastly, Republicans have spent a majority of their respective campaigns pushing their strengths on being a conservative candidate and whether they really are that conservative in policy or not is later to be determined, but what it has done is paint an image of neo-conservatism that may be an extreme that many independents are not going to be pleased with. This is one of the externalities of this long primary season. As soon as the G.O.P. finally decides on a candidate, it has to be priority number one to capture independents, which will mean carefully crafting language to balance extreme right policy with middle of the road policy. Not an easy task. So the deeper into the season Republicans go, the deeper their hole will be.

So to the G.O.P. and Mr. Obama, if you are going to win this election you are going to need to appeal to people like me, the independents. Good luck gentlemen.